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欧洲一卡2卡三卡4卡老狼,欧洲一卡2卡三卡...

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欧洲一卡2卡三卡4卡老狼,欧洲一卡2卡三卡...

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傅立民:俄烏衝突加速百年未有之大變局,這對中美關係意味著什麽?冰汝看美國2022年04月18日 08:58:04下載客戶端
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昨天傅立民大使(Chas Freeman, 尼克鬆訪華首席翻譯)在一封郵件裏跟我分享了他近期在哈佛學院中國論壇上的講話,對於當前俄烏衝突對世界局勢的影響,他談了談自己的想法。小王覺得傅立民的這段演說很深刻,又很無奈。世界正在經曆“百年未有之大變局”,帶給我們的思考遠超俄烏本身。

演講中英文全文:

美國人現在對俄羅斯的侵略如此上心,以至於我們應該但卻幾乎沒有去思考烏克蘭戰爭正在催化全球局勢的劃時代變化,也沒有思考如何去應對這些變化。普京總統決定使用武力捍衛莫斯科的安全利益,以及之後美國、歐洲、日本和澳大利亞的反應,顯然都標誌著“百年未有之大變局”。我們正在見證後冷戰時期的結束,二戰後和布雷頓森林體係時代的過去,以及其他世界秩序的曆史性轉變。

俄羅斯對融入西方進行的長達三個世紀的努力最終失敗了。製裁正在使俄羅斯與歐洲和北美脫鉤,並使其別無選擇隻能依賴中國和印度。歐洲不再和平。德國和日本在重整武裝。芬蘭和瑞典申請加入北約,而土耳其卻將其擱置一旁。隨著“脫歐”,英國失去了在歐洲的影響力,從而在全球範圍內削弱了自己。中東已不再是美國的勢力範圍。

國際法幾乎失去了所有可信度。以美元為基礎的國欧洲一卡2卡三卡4卡老狼,欧洲一卡2卡三卡...際貨幣體係的未來越來越受到質疑。美國享受了四分之三世紀的“過高特權”正處於危險之中。隨著非洲、阿拉伯世界、拉丁美洲、西亞,東南亞,中國和印度一道拒絕在烏克蘭的美俄代理人戰爭中選邊站隊,這表明比起民主和專製,世界在前帝國主義大國和被他們壓製的國家之間更加分裂。能夠充分代表不斷變化的全球政治主體的組織機構和能彌合這一鴻溝的製衡力量都越來越少。

烏克蘭的噩夢是在美國和中國用尋求單方麵優勢的“大國競爭”取代尋求互利共贏之後發生的。中美關係正處於正常化後的最低點。這種變化以及日益擴大的美俄代理人戰爭所引發的變化正在加速將世界劃分為相互競爭的經濟、技術和軍事集團——一個由美國領導,另一個以中國為中心,也許還有其他。氣候變化、生態惡化和核擴散等全球性問題,以及為促進全球繁榮而重塑貿易和投資規則的挑戰都被忽視了。中美關係的基本原則“求同存異”到底發生了什麽?

最終,中國和美國將重新發現恢複友好關係的好處。但是,在我已經七十九歲的現在,我不指望能活到看到這一天。這種分裂,就像中蘇分裂一樣,是愚蠢的,但政治家們需要時間來恢複理智並試圖修複它。

這對中美關係,中國人和美國人的關係意味著什麽?

中國的經濟繁榮和美國的科技進步都在兩國過去四十年的合作中受益匪淺。欧洲一卡2卡三卡4卡老狼,欧洲一卡2卡三卡...雙方目前為這種合作設置的障礙現在不僅幫不上忙還隻能帶來破壞。中國與俄羅斯和南半球國家合作,但不再與美國交好。美國將錯過中國對其科學、技術和資本的可靠貢獻,就像中國錯過通過與美國合作取得進步的機會一樣。

在座的許多人都在追隨前幾代中國人的腳步在西方尋求知識。即使經過長時間的停滯間斷,二十世紀二三十年代在這裏學習的人依舊能夠引領 1980 年代中美學術交流的複興。難過的是,你們這一代的中國學生可能會發現自己在一段時間內同樣與這個國家隔絕。就像一個世紀前的中國學生一樣,你必須親身去了解它的優點和缺點。無論你留在這裏、返回中國,還是去別處,當事情平靜下來時--它們最終也會那樣,你將成為中美互利關係複興的基礎。

事實是,如果不與對方和平交流,中國和美國都無法成為任何一方有能力成為的樣子。我們將為脫離交往付出代價,但它不會永遠持續下去。我們可能在很多事情上存在分歧,但隨著時間的推移,我們將重新接受合作的必要性,以推進我們共同的利益。而有很多那樣的利益等待我們去發現。

Changes not seen in a Century

Remarks to the Harvard College China Forum

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)

Visiting Scholar, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University

By video from Washington, DC 16 April 2022

Americans are now so worked up about Russian aggression that we are not thinking nearly as much as we should be about the epochal changes in the global situation that the war in Ukraine is catalyzing or how to cope with these. President Putin’s decision to use force to defend Moscow’s perceived security interests and the reactions of the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia to this clearly mark “changes not seen in a century” [百年未有之大變局][1]—to coin a phrase. We are witnessing the end of the post-Cold War period and the passing of the post-World War II and Bretton Woods eras as well as other historic shifts in the world order.

Russia’s three-century-long effort to attach itself to the West has definitively failed. Sanctions are decoupling it from Europe and North America and leaving it with no alternative to dependence on China and India. Europe is no longer at peace. Germany and Japan are rearming. Finland and Sweden are applying for membership in NATO as Turkey sets it aside. With “Brexit,” Britain has forfeited influence in Europe and thereby diminished itself globally. The Middle East has ceased to be an American sphere of influence.

International law has lost almost all credibility. The future of the dollar-based international monetary system is in increasing doubt. The “exorbitant privileges” the United States has enjoyed for three-fourths of a century are at risk. As Africa, the Arab world, Latin America, and West and Southeast Asia join China and India in refusing to take sides in the US-Russia proxy war in Ukraine, they show that the world is much more divided between former imperialist powers and those they humiliated than between democracies and autocracies. There are ever fewer institutions that are sufficiently representative of shifting global subdivisions and power balances to bridge this divide.

The nightmare in Ukraine follows the replacement by the U.S. and China of efforts to seek mutual benefit with “great power rivalry” that seeks one-sided advantages. Sino-American relations are at a post-normalization nadir. The changes this and the widening Russo-American proxy war have catalyzed are accelerating the partition of the world into rival economic, technological, and military blocs – one led by the United States, another centered on China, and perhaps still others. Planetwide problems like climate change, environmental degradation, and nuclear proliferation as well as challenges like reinventing rules for trade and investment that enable greater global prosperity are being neglected. Whatever happened to 求同存異[2] – the founding principle of Sino-American relations?

Eventually, China and the United States will rediscover the merits of rapprochement. But, at seventy-nine, I do not expect to live to see this. This Sino-American split, like the Sino-Soviet split, is folly, but it will take time for statesmen to come to their senses and try to repair it.

What does this mean for relations between China and the United States or between Chinese and Americans?

China’s economic prosperity and America’s scientific and technological advance have both benefitted enormously from collaboration between the two countries over the past four decades. The impediments that both are erecting to such intercourse cannot now help but take their toll. China is aligned with Russia and the countries of the global South but no longer with the United States. America will miss reliable Chinese contributions to its science, technology, and capital as much as China misses the opportunity to advance through cooperation with the United States.

Many of you in this audience are following in the footsteps of previous generations of Chinese who sought knowledge in the West. After a long hiatus, those who studied here in the 1920s and ‘30s were able to lead the renewal of Sino-American scholarly communication in the 1980s. Sadly, your generation of Chinese students may find yourselves similarly isolated from this country for a time. You have come to know its merits and failings firsthand as Chinese students a century ago also did. Whether you remain here, return to China, or go elsewhere, when things calm down – as they eventually will, you will be the foundation on which mutually beneficial ties between China and the United States are renewed.

The fact is that neither China nor America can become what either has the capacity to be without peaceful engagement with the other. We will pay a price for disengagement, but it will not last forever. We may differ on many things but in time we will reembrace the imperative of cooperation to advance those interests we share. There are many such interests for us to rediscover.